The price of crude oil could tumble to $20 a barrel in the coming
months if China’s currency continues to decline against the US dollar,
one of Wall Street’s leading investment banks has predicted.On a day when the cost of crude hit a new 12-year low and edge closer to the $30 a barrel level,
Morgan Stanley posted a forecast on Monday of $20-25 a barrel for oil based on movements in currencies.
Oil
is priced in US dollars and Morgan Stanley’s analyst, Adam Longson,
said it had been the strength of the greenback rather than oversupply
that had pushed crude down by $20 a barrel in the past two months.
China’s currency, the yuan, has been weakening as a result of
concerns about the health of the economy, and Longson said: “Given the
continued US dollar appreciation, $20-25 oil price scenarios are
possible simply due to the currency.”
The cost of Brent crude dropped by almost 5% in London business
trading, and ended the day just under $32 a barrel - its lowest level
since late 2003.
Reports from Beijing have suggested that the Peoples’ Bank of
China is considering a 15% cut in the value of the yuan in an attempt to reduce the cost of exports and thus boost growth.
The yuan makes up just over a fifth of the basket of currencies used
to calculate the dollar’s trade-weighted international value, so a 15%
yuan depreciation would send the dollar up by 3.2%. Longson said this
would be enough to push oil below $30 a barrel.
“If other currencies move as well, the move in the USD and oil could
be even greater. Hence, we remain bearish, even after the notable
downward move already.”
Meanwhile copper, a key industrial metal, is now cheaper than it has
been for seven years - seen by analysts as a sign that demand from
manufacturers is weak.
XTM Research Analyst Lukman Otunug said: “Fears have heightened over
China’s ailing economy and with confusion towards the unexpected
devaluations leaving market participants questioning Beijing’s overall
policy intentions; global sentiment may remain heavily depressed.”
In London, the FTSE 100 fell a further 41 points to 5872, the lowest
closing level for the index of UK quoted blue-chip companies since late
2012. The FTSE includes a large number of mining and commodity stocks
that have been vulnerable to the sharp fall in the cost of oil and
industrial metals in recent months.
The oil price remained under downward pressure in New York, where
there were early attempts at a rally in share prices following last
week’s falls. By lunchtime, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up
around 50 at just under 16400.
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